Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Injury may cost Shohei Ohtani in free agency, but he remains an elite fantasy option

NEW YORK – The Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Centeratmosphere was electric on a perfect 82-degree night for baseball.

Every time Shohei Ohtani came to the plate, fans stopped what they were doing, pulled out their cellphone cameras and focused their attention on what amazing feat they might be about to witness.

The most interesting thing, though, was that the scene took place at the home of the New York Mets, where the partisan crowd of 35,890 should have been rooting for Ohtani to fail.

Of course, in typical Ohtani fashion, he provided just the kind of heroics everyone hoped to see.

There was the majestic first-inning fly ball down the right field line that knocked out a light panel in the LED board on the upper deck after just hooking foul.

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There was the rocket double four pitches later that left his bat at 110 mph and bounced off the wall in right-center field.

There was the screaming liner into the right field corner in the second inning that sent him galloping around the bases for his major league-leading eighth triple.

And after a fourth-inning walk, there were consecutive steals of second and third base to push his total to 19 on the season.

Even in the top of the ninth with the Angels looking to extend a two-run lead, boos rained down on the home team when Ohtani’s final at-bat ended before it began … with an intentional walk.

That’s how much excitement the sport’s best player and this season’s likely AL MVP brings to every game.

All despite not being able to display another of his amazing talents – his pitching – until his right elbow is completely healthy again.

Ohtani’s so fun to watch and root for, regardless of whether he wears your favorite team’s uniform or not.

Hitting, but not pitching

Even if he doesn’t wear your favorite team’s uniform, it’s still possible to feel a part of the Ohtani experience by having him on your fantasy baseball roster.

His unique ability to slot in as a hitter or pitcher has made Ohtani both a blessing and a curse for fantasy managers because most leagues don’t allow his hitting and pitching stats to count at the same time.

With a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament likely preventing him from pitching the rest of this season and all of 2024, Ohtani won’t be a dual threat again for a while. But that just makes the decision easier for fantasy managers, who can put him in the utility spot and leave him there.

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Before MLB changed its rule last season, having Ohtani hit and pitch at the same time was a detriment to his hitting stats because he couldn’t be replaced as a pitcher without giving up the DH spot in the lineup.

Ohtani definitely took advantage. In games this season when he was the starting pitcher, he hit .372/.485/.731 with seven homers in 97 plate appearances. That’s compared to his .305/.409/.666 line as a DH only.

Of course, correlation doesn’t equal causation. And Ohtani hit worse last season when he was on the mound (177 OPS points lower, in fact), so there’s no telling how much the added responsibility of pitching impacted his hitting.

What we do know is that, as he did while recovering from his first Tommy John surgery, Ohtani will focus exclusively on hitting for the foreseeable future. And judging from his recent efforts – with a heavily padded right elbow – he should continue to be a force on offense. At the moment, he’s on track to become the first player since Hall of Famer Jim Rice in 1978 to lead his league in both home runs and triples in the same season. And that’s in addition to leading the AL in runs scored, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS.

Value going forward

One question to consider for next season is how much of Ohtani’s fantasy value can be attributed to his pitching skills.

On average, he was the seventh player off the board in mixed league drafts this season, according to the National Fantasy Baseball Championships (NFBC).

Being able to slot him as a pitcher or hitter gave fantasy managers roster flexibility they could use immediately, starting with the draft. That option will still be available next spring since Ohtani should be eligible at either pitcher or utility. But the advantage won’t carry over into the regular season if he can’t pitch.

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Having the option is nice, but most fantasy teams used Ohtani as a hitter almost exclusively during the season anyway. And why not? Through Aug. 27, he has earned $45 in Roto value, making him the No. 2 fantasy hitter in 5x5 mixed leagues behind only Ronald Acuña Jr. ($59), according to BaseballHQ.com.

If anything, not having to chase that elusive two-start week on the mound and risk giving up seven games’ worth of hitting stats will make fantasy managers’ lives a lot easier.

So while the elbow injury could cost Ohtani hundreds of millions of dollars on his upcoming free agent contract, there’s no reason to think his fantasy value will be any less next season just because he’s not pitching. He’ll still be one of the most valuable players in our game.

Future considerations

The one format where Ohtani’s fantasy value most closely mirrors his real-life value is in simulation leagues.

When playing actual games against an opponent, having Ohtani in the lineup every day and on the mound every fifth day is a huge advantage. And since the individual player cards are based on actual statistics from the previous year, you have a pretty good idea how they’ll perform over the course of a simulated season.

In one of my sim leagues, I drafted Ohtani in 2021 as he was recovering from elbow surgery. Although I couldn’t use him as a pitcher that year, his initial contract was a significant bargain. And under Dynasty League Baseball rules, I can keep him for the option year of his contract in 2024 … or extend him at an increasingly higher salary for each additional year.

Hmmmm. It’s eerily similar to what MLB executives are considering as they formulate their contract offers this winter. Is Ohtani worth the high upfront cost while he’s not fully healthy, with the potential for a huge payoff two years down the road when he can pitch again?

The advantage we armchair GMs have is that our stakes are much lower. And the ramifications of making a mistake are much less frightening. Therefore, when it comes to Ohtani, fun – not fear – is the determining factor.

Follow Gardner on X, formerly Twitter: @SteveAGardner